To me it's s a forgone conclusion that Asia and other developing countries will eventually see wide-spread adoption of Open Source software based on Linux. Their governments and local corporations don't want to fork out huge amounts of money to foreign companies for software licenses. The software is "good enough" for a huge range of applications and if you're strapped for cash, it's the obvious way to go.
What Microsoft needs is lots of Open Source software that runs on Windows Server 2003. It might cost some applcation and server software sales but it keeps them in the game in the long run. Losing to Apache/PHP is better than losing to Linux. At some point, it will probably make sense for Microsoft to port .Net to Linux so that it's programming model gets wide spread adoption and they can position Windows as the best platform to run it on.